The Future is Now: Central Valley Farmland at the Tipping Point?
Introduction
Executive Summary
Resumen Ejecutivo
Current Trends
     Population Growth
  Farmland Use and Development
  Quality of Farmland Developed
  Efficiency of Urban Development
  "Ranchettes" & Other Rural Development
  Agricultural Trends
Local Plans & Performance
  Analytical Method
  Sutter County
  Sacramento County
  Yolo County
  San Joaquin County
  Stanislaus County
  Merced County
  Madera County
  Fresno County
  Tulare County
  Kings County
  Kern County
Where is The Valley Heading?
Time for Change
  Ideas for Change
What You Can Do
  Rank Your County
  Local Official Contacts
  Local Organizations
  Support AFT
Methodology & Background Data
Acknowledgments
About AFT in California

Tulare County Data Summary



1990

2000
1990-2000
Change
Population [1]
311,921
368,021
56,100
(18%)
-
Agricultural Land (Acres) [2]
1,313,163
1,314,651
1,488
-
Urban & Built-Up Land (Acres)
39,310
49,380
10,070 (26%)
10
1.5-10 Ac Ranchette Development (Acres) [3]
-
17,214
-
8
Ranchettes as Percentage of
Urban & Built Up Land
-
35%
-
10
High Quality Farmland (Acres) [4]
777,555
755,341
(22,214)
-
High Quality Farmland as Percentage of All Land in County
25%
-
-
-
Percentage of New Development 1990-2000 on High Quality Farmland
-
-
58%
4
High Quality Farmland as Percentage of Undeveloped Land in City Spheres of Influence
-

78%
-
10
Development Efficiency
(People per Urban Acre)
6.1
6.0
5.9
11
Undeveloped Land within City Spheres of Influence (Acres)
-
50,877
-
7
Undeveloped Land in Spheres as Percentage of Land Needed for 2020 Population at 1990-2000 People Per Acre
-
164%
-
4
Percentage of Urban & Built-Up Land Outside City Spheres of Influence
-
31%
-
7
Vehicle Miles Traveled Per Household [5]
22,200
23,412
+5.5%
7
Projected Loss of Farmland by 2040 [6]
-
-
110,513
7

Note on Ranking: The Central Valley counties included in this report are ranked to enable a comparison of their performance in preserving farmland and encouraging "smart growth." A rank of 1 (among the 11 counties studied) indicates the best relative performance, a rank of 11 indicates the worst relative performance. Rankings are based on percentage change (where it is given), amount of change (where no percentage change is given) or the absolute number (where no change is given).

Data Sources

[1] Population data from U.S. Bureau of Census.
[2] All data on agricultural and urban land from Farmland Mapping & Monitoring Program (FMMP), Department of Conservation, California Resources Agency.
[3] Ranchette data from T. Dunbar, "Ranchettes: The Subtle Sprawl" (American Farmland Trust, 2000); except Stanislaus, Merced, Madera and Fresno Counties data from FMMP, 2002.
[4] "High Quality Farmland" includes farmland classified by FMMP as prime, unique or of statewide importance. [See Land Classification System]
[5] Vehicle miles from "California Motor Vehicle Stock, Travel and Fuel Forecast," Caltrans, Nov. 2004; households calculated by dividing population by 2.8 people per household.
[6] Calculated by AFT based on 1990-2000 development efficiencies and California Department of Finance population projections.

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